---
title: "92¢ to Zero in 25 Minutes: FURIA vs FUT on Polymarket"
description: "Polymarket's order book for FURIA vs FUT Esports went from a 92¢ bid to no bids at any price in 25 minutes. A ridgeline chart drawn from 548,830 full-depth snapshots of one book on match day."
url: https://www.afonsomartins.com/furia-order-book
author: Afonso Martins
published: 2026-10-03
updated: 2026-10-03
---

# 92¢ to Zero in 25 Minutes

## FURIA vs FUT Esports, CS2, Esports World Cup playoffs, 22 August 2026

At 16:44 UTC, the market gave FURIA a 92% chance to win their Esports World Cup series. At 17:10, nobody would pay a single cent for their shares.

[Video: FURIA vs FUT Esports: Polymarket's order book, ridge by ridge](https://www.afonsomartins.com/media/furia-book.mp4)

This is Polymarket's order book for that series. The desk holds 548,830 full-depth snapshots of this one book from match day, and each ridge is one of them, 3 minutes apart. Blue is money waiting to buy FURIA, orange is money waiting to sell, and the white dots are the price.

## What the book did

**At the scheduled start, 92% of the money near the price disappeared in 30 seconds.** About $617k was at stake within 10¢ of the price at 13:59:59, and $48k at 14:00:29.

**The book sped up about 67 times.** Before the game it changed about 100 times a minute. In the last 30 minutes it changed about 6,700 times a minute, roughly 110 times a second, on a contract that can only trade between 0 and 100¢.

**The deciding map swung the price across the whole board.** FUT took map 1, FURIA took map 2, and late in map 3 the price went 92¢ → 13¢ → 67¢ → 1¢ → 16¢ → no bids, all within 25 minutes.

## The question behind it

My research question is what an order resting in a book like this earns or loses while the price swings like that. A forecast is scored against the result. A resting order is scored against the spread, the fee, its place in the queue and everything that happens while it waits, and a book like this one shows how much can happen in that time. The [research desk](https://www.afonsomartins.com/research-desk) is built around that question.

## How it is drawn

I drew the chart with matplotlib from the raw snapshots. Each ridge shows the money at stake at each price within 25¢ of the price, lightly smoothed over neighbouring cents and compressed (money^0.35) so the thin in-play book stays visible. A buy at 60¢ stakes 60¢ a share, and a sell at 60¢ stakes 40¢. There is one ridge every 3 minutes from 13:32 to 17:08 UTC, and the last bid was gone at 17:09:55.

## The desk behind it

The research desk runs on a codebase I started on 16 August 2026, and AI coding agents wrote most of it, under rules that run as tests ([how that works](https://www.afonsomartins.com/ai-agents)). As of 3 October 2026 it has 1,350+ commits, 280+ experiments and a 657 GB data lake. Its replay engine runs 344 strategy versions over 3,023 esports matches and gives byte-identical results when you run it twice.

---

*Related: [The research desk](https://www.afonsomartins.com/research-desk) · [How I run AI coding agents on one repo](https://www.afonsomartins.com/ai-agents) · [The gate that keeps capital safe](https://www.afonsomartins.com/mm-trader)*